Larry Elliott, economics editor The Guardian, Wednesday 31 December 2008
House prices in 20 big US cities fell at their fastest rate on record in the year to October as rising unemployment, rationed credit and a glut of foreclosed properties led to fresh weakness in the market, according to a report released yesterday.
After falling every month since January 2007, the closely watched S&P/Case Shiller index of property prices declined 2.2% in October, leaving them 18% down on a year earlier. Six cities - Charlotte, Washington, Minneapolis, Tampa, Detroit and Atlanta - saw record monthly falls, while the biggest annual declines were in Phoenix and Las Vegas, where prices fell by a third.
David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said: "The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March 2004 levels."
Source=>>
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Almost one in 10 Floridians on food stamps
BY JOSE PAGLIERY jpagliery@MiamiHerald.com
Unemployed and strapped for cash, Floridians are asking for state assistance to feed their families in record numbers.
In the last two years, the number of Floridians on food stamps has increased more than 40 percent to 1.7 million. That increase is the highest in the nation, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And it's the second-largest jump in the state's history, surpassed only during the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, said an analyst at the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington-based think tank.
Almost one in 10 Floridians is now on food stamps, and state managers say many more qualify.
Unemployed and strapped for cash, Floridians are asking for state assistance to feed their families in record numbers.
In the last two years, the number of Floridians on food stamps has increased more than 40 percent to 1.7 million. That increase is the highest in the nation, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And it's the second-largest jump in the state's history, surpassed only during the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, said an analyst at the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington-based think tank.
Almost one in 10 Floridians is now on food stamps, and state managers say many more qualify.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Bye bye dollar, bye bye Treasuries...
Clive Maund as posted in Gold-Eagle.Com
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern. We had correctly identified the Head-and-Shoulders top back when the dollar index was high in the Right Shoulder of the pattern, when a Dollar Special update was posted on the site on 5th December, warning of a probable imminent dollar breakdown.
As we know, the dollar spike was not the result of positive fundamentals for the currency, rather it was largely the result of across-the-board forced liquidation of commodities and stocks due to deflation fears, with the tidal wave of released funds gushing into US Treasuries as a safe haven, which first necessitated the purchase of dollars. A fortuitous aspect of the panic for the US government and Fed was that the dollar spike gave them the leeway to embark on a bender of money creation to finance an orgy of bailout largesse, especially for the benefit and banks and cronies on Wall St, although clearly the auto industry does not enjoy such favored status. This has greatly exacerbated the downside danger to the dollar once the driver of Hedge Fund and other liquidation of commodities and stocks etc abates, which now appears to be happening as the market begins to perceive the hyperinflationary implications of the recent enormous money creation. Thus, once the dollar spike is seen to have ended we could witness an all-out panic out of the dollar, and market participants would do well to remember that that which rises steeply can drop even more quickly, which means that the dollar could well plunge vertically. We may be on the point of this now. In the event of the dollar plunging potential buyers and holders of US Treasuries are likely to get "cold feet" leading to a "buyers's strike" and possibly wholesale dumping of Treasuries by overseas holders. As the United States is in the unfortunate situation of being totally bankrupt, the choking off of foreign capital inflows can be expected to lead to an immediate and severe funding emergency, with the direst of consequences.
Holders of US dollars and Treasuries should therefore liquidate all positions immediately, the best possibly destination for the freed funds being physical gold and silver - if you can get it. We will be looking at the ways to secure physical gold and silver on the site shortly.
Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysissupport@clivemaund.comhttp://www.clivemaund.com/
Copiapo, Chile, 16 December 2008
No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern. We had correctly identified the Head-and-Shoulders top back when the dollar index was high in the Right Shoulder of the pattern, when a Dollar Special update was posted on the site on 5th December, warning of a probable imminent dollar breakdown.
As we know, the dollar spike was not the result of positive fundamentals for the currency, rather it was largely the result of across-the-board forced liquidation of commodities and stocks due to deflation fears, with the tidal wave of released funds gushing into US Treasuries as a safe haven, which first necessitated the purchase of dollars. A fortuitous aspect of the panic for the US government and Fed was that the dollar spike gave them the leeway to embark on a bender of money creation to finance an orgy of bailout largesse, especially for the benefit and banks and cronies on Wall St, although clearly the auto industry does not enjoy such favored status. This has greatly exacerbated the downside danger to the dollar once the driver of Hedge Fund and other liquidation of commodities and stocks etc abates, which now appears to be happening as the market begins to perceive the hyperinflationary implications of the recent enormous money creation. Thus, once the dollar spike is seen to have ended we could witness an all-out panic out of the dollar, and market participants would do well to remember that that which rises steeply can drop even more quickly, which means that the dollar could well plunge vertically. We may be on the point of this now. In the event of the dollar plunging potential buyers and holders of US Treasuries are likely to get "cold feet" leading to a "buyers's strike" and possibly wholesale dumping of Treasuries by overseas holders. As the United States is in the unfortunate situation of being totally bankrupt, the choking off of foreign capital inflows can be expected to lead to an immediate and severe funding emergency, with the direst of consequences.
Holders of US dollars and Treasuries should therefore liquidate all positions immediately, the best possibly destination for the freed funds being physical gold and silver - if you can get it. We will be looking at the ways to secure physical gold and silver on the site shortly.
Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysissupport@clivemaund.comhttp://www.clivemaund.com/
Copiapo, Chile, 16 December 2008
No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.
THE AMERICAN DREAM,An Obituary
Darryl Robert Schoon December 22, 2008
The American Revolution was an extraordinary event. The idea that freedom was an inherent right, that tyranny could be successfully opposed, that government could serve the people, not the few, was truly revolutionary in 1776-as it is today.
The American Revolution, however, has run its course; and unless resuscitated and given new life, the American dream and the dreams of America's founding fathers will soon be only a memory. Dreams rarely come to pass and those that do rarely last. The American dream is no exception.
What happened in 1776 has been subverted by the passage of time and the inconstancy of later generations. Those who rule America today have subverted the principles enumerated in the US Constitution; principles the Founding Father hoped would guide those who followed them through the crises yet to come.
The principles were not many, e.g. fiscal prudence, sound money, separation of church and state and a limited military and limited government. But even those few and clearly stated principles succumbed over the years to the imposition of policies that had given rise to the need to revolt in 1776.
Now, in 2008, tyranny and government excesses are again upon America, but this time it is by America's own hand. The policies of King George III were no more egregious than the policies of President George Bush II.- taxation without real representation, e.g. TARP (80 % Americans opposed), the imposition of policies contrary to the will of the people, e.g. US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan (70 % opposed), and the loss of individual freedoms under the Patriot Act (60 % opposed).
The difference between 1776 and 2008 is that America is now tyrannized not by the King of England but by its own government. Today, the US government does not represent the will of the people. It represents instead the special interests that control the US government through the buying of votes-America is not for sale only because it has already been sold.
The difference between 1776 and 2008 is not only 232 years. It is the difference between the dream of the Founding Fathers and the shadow of that dream in whose increasing darkness Americans now exist.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK IS THE REASON FOR AMERICA'SFALL FROM POWER AND THE SOURCE OF ITS INCREASING PROBLEMS
Thomas Jefferson warned 200 hundred years ago that if private bankers were allowed to issue America's money, indebtedness, foreclosure and suffering would follow. Yet, in 1913, private bankers gained control over America's money by the passage of the Federal Reserve Act.
We are now suffering for ignoring Jefferson's warnings. Jefferson was right in predicting our problems but his words were overridden by those who had other plans for America, plans that would increase their profits at the expense of the nation.
It is no accident America is now an empty shell of the great economic power it once was. Bled dry by debt imposed by those whose sole intent was to profit, the US is now bankrupt at a time it desperately needs the resources it no longer has.
The US Treasury is now empty except for IOUs and only if others continue to buy America's debts can America continue to go forward. Once we were creditors, now we are debtors. America cannot escape the consequences of what has been done but we can limit our problems if we undo their cause.
The Federal Reserve Act was enacted by Congress and signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson who later bitterly regretted what he had done to America.
I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.Woodrow Wilson, US President
The power of the Federal Reserve System-a system controlled by a small group of dominant men-derives solely from is power to issue debt-based money in the form of US dollars and to charge interest on their issuance. We are paying our jailors for our enslavement and are fools for so doing. Who would have thought-except Jefferson.
FRANCE AND AMERICA'S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM
This article is being posted from Paris, France; a city and nation that supported America's War of Independence against England. Over time, Americans have forgotten this important fact.
Following the Declaration of Independence of the thirteen colonies, the American Revolution had been well received in France, both by the population and the enlightened elites. The Revolution was perceived as the incarnation of the Enlightenment Spirit against the "English tyranny". Benjamin Franklin, dispatched to France in December of 1776 to rally her support, was welcomed with enthusiasm, and numerous Frenchmen embarked for the Americas to help the war, motivated by the prospect of valor in battle or animated by the sincere ideal of liberty and republicanism, like Pierre Charles L'Enfant, and La Fayette, who enlisted in 1776.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_in_the_American_Revolutionary_War
In the last two centuries, Americans have come to identify more with England (perhaps a cultural variant of the Stockhausen syndrome) than with its first ally, France-the lure of a good Burburry overcoming its love for the great cloak of freedom. Unfortunately, Americans have forgotten their history and what they haven't forgotten they have now reinvented.
Freedom is always fragile and is always under attack from those who would enslave others for their own ends, including profit; and, the present crisis is as threatening to America as was the crisis of 1776.
Now, as then, the cause of America's problem is English in origin. But this time the cause is England's central banking system, recreated on our own shores as the Federal Reserve Bank, a private central bank masquerading as a US Federal government institution.
But America does not own or control the Federal Reserve Bank. The Federal Reserve Bank is owned and controlled by a small group of dominant men- private bankers who through their control of the Federal Reserve now control America.
GOLD IS FREEDOMTHE 5 % SOLUTION
Gold is freedom because gold is the antidote to the debt-based money of private bankers issued by central banks such as the Federal Reserve, debt-based money that has been destroying America's wealth, savings, and productivity for almost one hundred years.
Since the Federal Reserve began issuing debt-based US dollars 95 years ago, the US dollar has lost 95 % of its value. The whiff of the dollar's demise is now in the air and unless something is done quickly, its end is imminent. There is only 5 % left to go.
Only if America returns to the principle of sound money enumerated in its Constitution, will the abomination of unsound money and unsound governance end. If the Federal Reserve is allowed to continue, so too will our problems and the now 95 year downward spiral of America.
The choice is clear: End the Federal Reserve or the American dream will end. End of story.
Five….four.…three....two….fini
PROFESSOR FEKETE & THE END GAME
Professor Antal E. Fekete's recent writing on the backwardation of gold has created a firestorm of controversy regarding its significance, as well it should. This is an area in which Professor Fekete is the resident expert. The professor's words of warning about gold's backwardation should not be taken lightly-nor should any of his words.
I consider myself fortunate to have made the professor's acquaintance when I first began my inquiry into matters of economics. Grounded in academic inquiry, Professor Fekete's concern for economic truths is equaled by his concern for his fellow man, attributes not commonly shared by the "economists" responsible for our current problems.
On March 27th, 28th and 29th, I will be attending and speaking at Professor Fekete's event in Szombathely, Hungary, on the subject of the coming depression, an event that will dwarf the disaster of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
If you are able to attend, I strongly suggest that you do. I have stated before that in my opinion Professor Fekete is a giant in a time of small men. I stand by that statement today. Opportunities to listen to persons of such stature are rare as they are invaluable.
Information about the March event is available at www.professorfekete.com.
The meaning and significance of gold's backwardation will be discussed as will the Professor's observations regarding the accelerating economic crisis-the resolution of the end game.
Darryl Robert Schoonwww.survivethecrisis.comwww.drschoon.comblog www.posdev.net/pdn/index.php?option=com_myblog&blogger=drs&Itemid=81
The American Revolution was an extraordinary event. The idea that freedom was an inherent right, that tyranny could be successfully opposed, that government could serve the people, not the few, was truly revolutionary in 1776-as it is today.
The American Revolution, however, has run its course; and unless resuscitated and given new life, the American dream and the dreams of America's founding fathers will soon be only a memory. Dreams rarely come to pass and those that do rarely last. The American dream is no exception.
What happened in 1776 has been subverted by the passage of time and the inconstancy of later generations. Those who rule America today have subverted the principles enumerated in the US Constitution; principles the Founding Father hoped would guide those who followed them through the crises yet to come.
The principles were not many, e.g. fiscal prudence, sound money, separation of church and state and a limited military and limited government. But even those few and clearly stated principles succumbed over the years to the imposition of policies that had given rise to the need to revolt in 1776.
Now, in 2008, tyranny and government excesses are again upon America, but this time it is by America's own hand. The policies of King George III were no more egregious than the policies of President George Bush II.- taxation without real representation, e.g. TARP (80 % Americans opposed), the imposition of policies contrary to the will of the people, e.g. US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan (70 % opposed), and the loss of individual freedoms under the Patriot Act (60 % opposed).
The difference between 1776 and 2008 is that America is now tyrannized not by the King of England but by its own government. Today, the US government does not represent the will of the people. It represents instead the special interests that control the US government through the buying of votes-America is not for sale only because it has already been sold.
The difference between 1776 and 2008 is not only 232 years. It is the difference between the dream of the Founding Fathers and the shadow of that dream in whose increasing darkness Americans now exist.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK IS THE REASON FOR AMERICA'SFALL FROM POWER AND THE SOURCE OF ITS INCREASING PROBLEMS
Thomas Jefferson warned 200 hundred years ago that if private bankers were allowed to issue America's money, indebtedness, foreclosure and suffering would follow. Yet, in 1913, private bankers gained control over America's money by the passage of the Federal Reserve Act.
We are now suffering for ignoring Jefferson's warnings. Jefferson was right in predicting our problems but his words were overridden by those who had other plans for America, plans that would increase their profits at the expense of the nation.
It is no accident America is now an empty shell of the great economic power it once was. Bled dry by debt imposed by those whose sole intent was to profit, the US is now bankrupt at a time it desperately needs the resources it no longer has.
The US Treasury is now empty except for IOUs and only if others continue to buy America's debts can America continue to go forward. Once we were creditors, now we are debtors. America cannot escape the consequences of what has been done but we can limit our problems if we undo their cause.
The Federal Reserve Act was enacted by Congress and signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson who later bitterly regretted what he had done to America.
I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.Woodrow Wilson, US President
The power of the Federal Reserve System-a system controlled by a small group of dominant men-derives solely from is power to issue debt-based money in the form of US dollars and to charge interest on their issuance. We are paying our jailors for our enslavement and are fools for so doing. Who would have thought-except Jefferson.
FRANCE AND AMERICA'S FIGHT FOR FREEDOM
This article is being posted from Paris, France; a city and nation that supported America's War of Independence against England. Over time, Americans have forgotten this important fact.
Following the Declaration of Independence of the thirteen colonies, the American Revolution had been well received in France, both by the population and the enlightened elites. The Revolution was perceived as the incarnation of the Enlightenment Spirit against the "English tyranny". Benjamin Franklin, dispatched to France in December of 1776 to rally her support, was welcomed with enthusiasm, and numerous Frenchmen embarked for the Americas to help the war, motivated by the prospect of valor in battle or animated by the sincere ideal of liberty and republicanism, like Pierre Charles L'Enfant, and La Fayette, who enlisted in 1776.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_in_the_American_Revolutionary_War
In the last two centuries, Americans have come to identify more with England (perhaps a cultural variant of the Stockhausen syndrome) than with its first ally, France-the lure of a good Burburry overcoming its love for the great cloak of freedom. Unfortunately, Americans have forgotten their history and what they haven't forgotten they have now reinvented.
Freedom is always fragile and is always under attack from those who would enslave others for their own ends, including profit; and, the present crisis is as threatening to America as was the crisis of 1776.
Now, as then, the cause of America's problem is English in origin. But this time the cause is England's central banking system, recreated on our own shores as the Federal Reserve Bank, a private central bank masquerading as a US Federal government institution.
But America does not own or control the Federal Reserve Bank. The Federal Reserve Bank is owned and controlled by a small group of dominant men- private bankers who through their control of the Federal Reserve now control America.
GOLD IS FREEDOMTHE 5 % SOLUTION
Gold is freedom because gold is the antidote to the debt-based money of private bankers issued by central banks such as the Federal Reserve, debt-based money that has been destroying America's wealth, savings, and productivity for almost one hundred years.
Since the Federal Reserve began issuing debt-based US dollars 95 years ago, the US dollar has lost 95 % of its value. The whiff of the dollar's demise is now in the air and unless something is done quickly, its end is imminent. There is only 5 % left to go.
Only if America returns to the principle of sound money enumerated in its Constitution, will the abomination of unsound money and unsound governance end. If the Federal Reserve is allowed to continue, so too will our problems and the now 95 year downward spiral of America.
The choice is clear: End the Federal Reserve or the American dream will end. End of story.
Five….four.…three....two….fini
PROFESSOR FEKETE & THE END GAME
Professor Antal E. Fekete's recent writing on the backwardation of gold has created a firestorm of controversy regarding its significance, as well it should. This is an area in which Professor Fekete is the resident expert. The professor's words of warning about gold's backwardation should not be taken lightly-nor should any of his words.
I consider myself fortunate to have made the professor's acquaintance when I first began my inquiry into matters of economics. Grounded in academic inquiry, Professor Fekete's concern for economic truths is equaled by his concern for his fellow man, attributes not commonly shared by the "economists" responsible for our current problems.
On March 27th, 28th and 29th, I will be attending and speaking at Professor Fekete's event in Szombathely, Hungary, on the subject of the coming depression, an event that will dwarf the disaster of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
If you are able to attend, I strongly suggest that you do. I have stated before that in my opinion Professor Fekete is a giant in a time of small men. I stand by that statement today. Opportunities to listen to persons of such stature are rare as they are invaluable.
Information about the March event is available at www.professorfekete.com.
The meaning and significance of gold's backwardation will be discussed as will the Professor's observations regarding the accelerating economic crisis-the resolution of the end game.
Darryl Robert Schoonwww.survivethecrisis.comwww.drschoon.comblog www.posdev.net/pdn/index.php?option=com_myblog&blogger=drs&Itemid=81
Monday, December 22, 2008
2009 Predictions
Roger Wiegand 321.Gold
"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.
In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009."-Traderrog
The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.
The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.
Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall planwill have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.
During the spring of next year we see:
(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.
Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.
Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?
Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.
The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.
The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.
Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.
Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.
The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.
Trader Rog - Roger WiegandEditor, Trader Tracksemail:
traderrog@comcast.netTrader Tracks from http://www.miningstocks.com/
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Monetary Policy
Antal E. FeketeGold Standard UniversityE-mail: aefekete@hotmail.com
Nor is it possible to argue that the American government continued to serve the interest of the American people after March, 1933, when Roosevelt confiscated gold belonging to the American people, only to write up its value from $20.67 $35 per ounce a few months later, allegedly "in the interest of the national economy". This great government of this great nation, stealing from its own citizens in the national interest? And selling the loot abroad at a high mark-up? Where will it all end? Never mind the Constitutional prohibition on confiscation without due process. Never mind that the Constitution does not recognize fiat money. Never mind that the only kind of money the Constitution recognizes is silver and gold. Just ask simple questions about basic morality. The moral standard of the U.S. government in its dealings with its own citizens has reached an all-time low, as shown by the new norms set in the monetary field.
This land of free men was turned into an Animal Farm where pigs have been running wild and making monetary policy for the past 75 years. It is small wonder that men of utter depravity, like Bernie Madoff, could operate Ponzi schemes unobserved and with impunity for as long as he did. Just how long could the legal system stand up to assaults of this width, this depth, and this magnitude? The name Bernie Madoff reads like the Biblical writing on the wall, suggesting that ours is a Madoff dollar; ours is a Madoff Social Security; and ours is a Madoff Medicare. What basis for optimism is there for the next 75 years? To find out, let's review the past 75 years.
The 'grapes of wrath' are ripening in Academia. Having exiled monetary science, agents of Madoff Economics (alias mainstream economists) have exposed society to untold dangers. All the people are going to be put through the wringer indiscriminately. No one will be spared.
What means Madoff Economics? It is the economics of "garbage in - garbage out". It features the central economic doctrine of Keynes that capital is for window-dressing purposes only. The smart guy does not need capital. The guy who is even smarter can milk previously accumulated capital for his own purposes.
For the first time we shall witness global destruction of capital in an advanced economy. The fabric of society is breaking down. Madoff Economics will continue to have a monopolistic influence in the councils of government. Adventurers will continue to be in charge, and will continue to display utter lack of responsibility for the damage they are causing to society. The script will be played out in full, to the bitter end. There will be no tabula rasa after Inauguration Day. Pigs will continue running Animal Farm, making monetary policy, until the fruit trees are picked bare of fruit, the barns are swept clean of grain, with nothing left in the cupboards or in the cookie jars.
Abridged for E.A. Read it all here=>>
Nor is it possible to argue that the American government continued to serve the interest of the American people after March, 1933, when Roosevelt confiscated gold belonging to the American people, only to write up its value from $20.67 $35 per ounce a few months later, allegedly "in the interest of the national economy". This great government of this great nation, stealing from its own citizens in the national interest? And selling the loot abroad at a high mark-up? Where will it all end? Never mind the Constitutional prohibition on confiscation without due process. Never mind that the Constitution does not recognize fiat money. Never mind that the only kind of money the Constitution recognizes is silver and gold. Just ask simple questions about basic morality. The moral standard of the U.S. government in its dealings with its own citizens has reached an all-time low, as shown by the new norms set in the monetary field.
This land of free men was turned into an Animal Farm where pigs have been running wild and making monetary policy for the past 75 years. It is small wonder that men of utter depravity, like Bernie Madoff, could operate Ponzi schemes unobserved and with impunity for as long as he did. Just how long could the legal system stand up to assaults of this width, this depth, and this magnitude? The name Bernie Madoff reads like the Biblical writing on the wall, suggesting that ours is a Madoff dollar; ours is a Madoff Social Security; and ours is a Madoff Medicare. What basis for optimism is there for the next 75 years? To find out, let's review the past 75 years.
The 'grapes of wrath' are ripening in Academia. Having exiled monetary science, agents of Madoff Economics (alias mainstream economists) have exposed society to untold dangers. All the people are going to be put through the wringer indiscriminately. No one will be spared.
What means Madoff Economics? It is the economics of "garbage in - garbage out". It features the central economic doctrine of Keynes that capital is for window-dressing purposes only. The smart guy does not need capital. The guy who is even smarter can milk previously accumulated capital for his own purposes.
For the first time we shall witness global destruction of capital in an advanced economy. The fabric of society is breaking down. Madoff Economics will continue to have a monopolistic influence in the councils of government. Adventurers will continue to be in charge, and will continue to display utter lack of responsibility for the damage they are causing to society. The script will be played out in full, to the bitter end. There will be no tabula rasa after Inauguration Day. Pigs will continue running Animal Farm, making monetary policy, until the fruit trees are picked bare of fruit, the barns are swept clean of grain, with nothing left in the cupboards or in the cookie jars.
Abridged for E.A. Read it all here=>>
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